The current presidential election in the United States is being called the most interesting in decades. Surprises are occurring in both parties, Republican and Democratic: the defeat of candidates considered favorites at the start of the primaries, and the victories of those who are considered outsiders. All of this raises a number of questions that go beyond the boundaries of the actual election campaign. Why have people so unusual in American political life, like Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, achieved success? What are the reasons for their massive voter support? What will happen in the U.S. political system after 2016? What are the implications of Trump’s nomination for Republican candidates running for various elected positions?
The article “Pochemu dlya rossiyan amerikanskie vybory interesnee svoikh [Why are the American Elections More Interesting to Russians than Their Own?]” by Anna Plotnikova was published on the GOLOS AMERIKI [Voice of America] portal on 08.06.2016.
The predictability of the Russian election campaign due to the powerful informational and administrative support of parliamentary parties and above all “Edinaiya Rossiya [United Russia]” make it unattractive in the eyes of those citizens who have not lost interest in politics.
As a consequence, they’re rather actively following the course of the current presidential race in the United States, which has already issued a number of surprises. Clearly associated with this is the popularity of informal meetings that American political scientists and experts who’ve worked in the campaign headquarters of the major parties in the United States have been holding in recent months in Russian cities.
At the beginning of June, James Thurber, the founder and director of the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies and a professor at American University, visited Moscow and St. Petersburg. He conducted a series of meetings during which he answered questions from Russian attendees: “Why have people so unusual in American political life, like Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, achieved success?” “What are the reasons for their massive voter support?” “What will happen in the U.S. political system after 2016?” “What are the implications of Trump’s nomination for Republican candidates running for various elected positions?”
Our “Golos Ameriki” correspondent visited a meeting that took place at the European University at St. Petersburg.
The preferences of American voters are polarized
Although three main candidates for the American presidency remain, the main “hero” of James Thurber’s presentation was Donald Trump. According to the director of the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies, the Republican candidate behaves in a way that is difficult to explain: he doesn’t focus on any one topic, and is constantly scattered, surprising both his supporters and opponents with a set of unrelated ideas and statements. The American political scientist noted that this eclecticism in the billionaire’s behavior leads to constant fluctuations in his ratings.
Thurber cited data from a sociological survey according to which 27% of American voters prefer Republicans, 34% vote for Democrats, and 38% of voters call themselves “independent,” i.e. they’re motivated not by party affiliation, but by a candidate’s platform. Now, James Thurber contends, an outflow of “independent” voters toward the Democrats is taking place.
The visitor from the United States did not undertake to predict the outcome of the November 8th election. He simply noted that for Republicans the key question is: will Republican voters who don’t like Trump still vote for him, or will they stay home? And how will Democrats who prefer Bernie Sanders behave if, after the party convention, his name is not included on the ballot? The issue lies in the fact that Sanders made a bid for young people who do not trust the Washington political establishment.
At the same time, Trump’s electoral base is the “angry” Middle American whose living standards are continuing to decline.
Overall, in professor Thurber’s observation, the political preferences of American voters are polarized, and centrist attitudes are gradually disappearing.
“Putin and Trump, in essence, are the same”
“There are still five months before the election, and obviously a lot can still happen,” said James Thurber in conversation with the “Golos Ameriki” correspondent.
“I think that after the conventions select the two candidates it will be much easier to follow the development of events,” he continued. “But it’s obvious that Trump will do the most inconceivable things to throw Hillary (Clinton—A.P.) out of the presidential race.”
The political analyst from the U.S. also believes that regardless of the outcome of the November election, both major parties are expecting changes: “I think that the Republicans will have to go through serious changes, and these have already begun. We’re talking about inveterate Republicans, and those who support Trump,” explained the “Golos Ameriki” interviewee. “And those who have power will try to nudge Trump to the point where the Republican Party was before he received the nomination.”
“If Hillary becomes president, she will control the Democratic Party. But Bernie Sanders has already had an impact on her electoral platform, and Hillary has already shifted to the left. I think that Hillary has no need to implement revolutionary changes in her own party, because on the whole Democrats will support her,” said James Thurber.
Certain Russian foreign policy commentators predict that as a result of such an unexpected presidential race in the United States this year, some “third force” based on the example of several European countries may appear.
The Director of the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies denied this possibility. “I think it’s too late for that, and the political rules in the United States don’t permit it. But even if such a ‘third force’ appeared, I think it would be on the side of Hillary. But even after the election a third party is unlikely to emerge because Democrats and Republicans control everything associated with elections and thus they simply won’t allow a strong third party to appear. Such political complicity is unfair, but such is the situation,” he pointed out.
James Thurber explained that in the U.S., in distinction from Europe, there is no system of proportional representation, and the principle of “winner takes all” prevails.
In answering the question of whether Donald Trump, if he were to win the election, would fulfill all of his foreign policy promises, professor Thurber exclaimed, “That’s a terrible thought!” But then he explained, “Even if that happens, then I think that the bureaucracy that exists in the State Department and the Department of Defense would, after all, limit his actions. I’ll give one example: Trump promised to drop bombs on the children and wives of terrorists in Syria. And army representatives immediately told him that this is impossible because it contradicts international law.”
“But it’s obvious that he still scares the world. I doubt that we’ll come out of NATO, but I suspect that most likely we’ll put more pressure on the NATO member states to contribute more financial resources to the alliance. Obama is also trying to do this now, but not as actively as Trump might,” James Thurber told “Golos Ameriki.”
“The issue is in the following,” he continued. “If Putin were to threaten Lithuania, what would Trump do? This thought is alarming, at the very least.”
At the end of the conversation the director of the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies offered up this anecdote: “Before I set off for Moscow, they asked me what I planned to do in Russia. I answered that I wanted to explain Trump to Putin, and then Putin to Trump. But after having thought a bit, I noticed that there was no need because, in essence, they’re the same. And if you were to see a photograph of Trump shirtless and riding a horse, you would agree they’re very similar,” concluded James Thurber with a degree of sarcasm.
“A change in relations would be more influenced by a change of leadership in Russia”
The lecture at the European University was attended by Petersburg Americanists. One of them, Department of Political Science and Sociology professor Ivan Kurilla, agreed that the intrigue of the American elections compensates for the absence of a real political struggle in Russian elections. Furthermore, he said, the election of the president of the United States is one of the most important events in the world. “The United States is the leading power, so it’s as though Americans are electing not just their own president, but an executive power that can affect everything that happens far beyond the borders of the United States. Here Russia is no exception,” said the Russian professor and foreign affairs specialist.
According to Ivan Kurilla, much in Russia is now determined by sanctions imposed by the U.S. and Europe. Thus the future of Russians, to a certain degree, also depends on who leads the American administration. “Although it seems to me that the bigger impact here could be to have a change not in the person in the White House, but here at home,” hinted the expert.
Answering the question of how bipartite relations might change after the November elections in the U.S., Ivan Kurilla said: “I’m sure that whoever the Americans elect, whoever occupies the White House in Washington in January of next year, there will be an attempt to improve relations from the side of the Russian leadership. There will probably be some demonstrative steps toward the United States in the hopes that the new president, at least, will reduce the level of confrontation and alleviate some sanctions.”
According to the European University at St. Petersburg professor, the probability of such an attempt to establish a dialogue from the Russian side is basically 100%.
“Whether it’s a full lifting of sanctions I’m not sure, because the basic sanctions imposed on Crimea are not going anywhere, and Crimea, most likely, no one will return in the near future. So we have a dead end situation, but in some areas, it’s fairly possible that certain steps will be made toward the United States,” said Ivan Kurilla.
Why is Hillary Clinton the best president for Russia?
In turn, Grigory Yarygin, an instructor in the Department of American Studies in the School of International Relations at SPbGU, believes that the average Russian layman is attracted, above all, by the bright trappings and colorful visual images of the American presidential race. “For professionals who deal with issues of foreign policy, it is important because the president of the U.S. and their advisers play a key role in relations with Russia. Moreover, not only America itself, but also most countries in the world,” said Yarygin.
He continued: “Therefore, it’s important for us to know and understand: who will be the American president, who works with them, which policies this person will adhere to, what ideology they share, which philosophy they follow.”
The “Golos Ameriki” interviewee also did not expect significant changes in Russian-American relations after the United States elects its 45th president. “At the present stage during the election of either a Democratic president or a Republic president, changes in policy toward Russia are not going to happen. This now is policy inertia. Many would be interested in easing the pressure on Russia, but due to internal political processes, including the positions of congressmen, such changes are not expected,” added the Petersburg Americanist.
According to Grigory Yarygin, the next American president will most likely be Hillary Clinton. “And here we should expect, more likely, a toughening of policy toward Russia. She is, however, as strange as it may sound, the candidate most favorable to us. Why? Because we understand her, we know that she presents herself as a leader, what her personal and professional qualities are, we know her values and positions in foreign policy,” the American Studies instructor argued.
Yarygin repeated the widespread assertion that it was easier for the Russian and Soviet leadership to deal with Republican presidents. “But under Democratic presidents, if we make a comparison, life in Russia has traditionally been more stable. We may have learned to negotiate with them,” allowed the expert.
In speaking about Donald Trump’s candidacy, Grigory Yarygin emphasized, first of all, that all the present populist statements would be forgotten in the event of his victory. But most importantly: “We don’t know him, don’t understand him, and it’s not known who or what is behind him. With Hillary Clinton the picture is clearer more predictable, and precisely this allows Russia to plan its own policy. And also to understand what steps need to be taken and most importantly—what reaction should be expected from that side,” summarized Grigory Yarygin.
James Thurber is one of the leading experts on American elections, the founder and director of the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies, and a professor at the American University (United States), http://www.american.edu/spa/faculty/thurber.cfm.